YouGov have predicted that Labour candidate Councillor Stephen Morgan will take the highly-contested seat in today’s update on their election model.
It is the first time that the Labour candidate has overtaken Conservative candidate Flick Drummond in the race for the seat since the model – which is updated daily – was launched last Wednesday.
The poll puts Cllr Morgan on 36 points, just one point ahead of Mrs Drummond on 35 points.
It still believes the seat to be a toss-up between the two parties, predicting Labour to get anything from 29 per cent to 44 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives from 30 per cent to 41 per cent.
Should the poll be accurate and Cllr Morgan win the seat, it would be the first time since the seat’s creation in 1918 that it would have a Labour MP.
The next challenger for the seat is Liberal Democrat candidate Councillor Gerald Vernon-Jackson, who is on 21 points.
Ukip and the Green Party are on five points and three points respectively. To view YouGov’s model, click here.