The improvements needed for Portsmouth to reach the Championship

We certainly don’t know what’s coming next in this unprecedented campaign, nor when it will be seen to a conclusion.

But as sure as Piers Morgan will interrupt an answer the second he’s asked a question, there’s some things you can always rely on at Pompey

You know Sean Raggett will head whatever’s put in front of him, for example, even if it’s an opponent’s cranium.

Similarly, you know Kenny Jackett will say similarly at some point in his press briefing, Barry Harris will always have a random factoid to offer you and Marie Curtis will offer value for money on Twitter.

And you can definitely be guaranteed there won’t be much which passes by the Pompey boss and his forensic detail to attention.

When it comes to players, Jackett possesses an encyclopedic knowledge of the English game. And when it comes statistics he’s not too far behind.

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There will always be an opinion to offer when it comes to crunching the numbers, analysing patterns and seeing what conclusions can be drawn from the data at his disposal.

And when thoughts turn to what it will take for Pompey to get promoted this season, that process tells him things need to improve.

‘I think so,’ Jackett told The News last week, when asked if his team need to up the rate at which they’re harvesting points this season.

‘The top two is going to be in the 80s somewhere. I don’t know exactly where but the top are 80-plus somewhere.’

That assessment in itself is not particularly revelatory, with the Pompey boss pitching the numbers needed to hit the top two in and around the historical sweet spot.

Eschewing last season’s curtailed campaign, and looking back on the previous 20 seasons underlines that reality

In that period the mean figure to reach the top two has been 87.5 points (74.5 points for the play-offs and 94.15 points to finish as champions), with Colchester the lowest on 79 points 2006 and Blackburn the highest (96) in 2018.

It’s when those figures are broken down into points per game (PPG) you begin to get a feel for how Pompey are travelling along the path to hitting those totals.

That 87.5 total boils down to 1.9 points per game to hit the top two, with 2.04 the average figure for champions and 1.61 the play-offs.

So how are Pompey now currently travelling along the path towards hitting that total.

After last night’s impressive win at Charlton, Jackett’s side are returning a PPG total of 1.83.

Interestingly, when placing the league table in order of PPG it has a very different appearance to how things currently look.

Doncaster lead the way (2.04) with Lincoln narrowly behind (2) and Hull next on 1.92. Pompey are fourth, but it’s Accrington who are narrowly behind in fifth (1.81) in front of Peterborough (1.79).

That variation is a nod to the number of different games played by teams, after the Blues passed the halfway point of a chaotic campaign in the rearranged game at The Valley.

What’s clear is this season is completely out of the ordinary. And the impact of the factors which make it so on what happens shouldn’t be underestimated.

As things stand, Pompey have to fit in 22 leagues games between now and May 8 - and there’s always a EFL Trophy final to work into the schedule at some point.

That current timetable averages a league game every four days between now and the end of term.

Yet, we’ve seen the ongoing impact of both Covid-19 and the weather on the League One schedule. It would be a blind optimist who wouldn’t envisage further upheaval to the fixture list.

Even in an extended season it’s clear the games are now going to come thick and fast, and in that environment it’s going to be tough for clubs to maintain consistency as they face challenges in terms of both fatigue and fitness.

So it’s not a stretch to think those factors will lead to the number needed to seal promotion coming down over the coming months, with two of the sides above Pompey currently on course to top 90 points.

So with Pompey set to hit 84 points at the current rate, improvement is needed - but perhaps not as dramatic an upturn in results as what some are suggesting.

Do Jackett’s side look like delivering what’s required? That, of course, is the multi-million pound Championship question.

Parking the numbers game and returning to that archaic notion of looking at what our eyes tell us, the conclusion in these quarters is Pompey look like one of half a dozen or so sides with realistic ambitions of reaching the top two.

Yes, the fear of another finish in those godforsaken play-offs linger and thoughts of that 0/8 record in end-of-season dust-ups refuse to be shaken.

But as much as that’s there, so is the knowledge no side is blowing away the rest of the field. There’s sides to respect, but not to particularly fear.

A real positive is, even under a wage cap which levels the playing field, Pompey’s squad measures up well against their rivals. You only have to look at Marcus Harness, George Byers and Harvey White coming off the bench on Tuesday night to realise that.

So, with eyes on the winning runs being put together by the likes of Doncaster and Oxford, Pompey now go in search of those magic ingredients which can inject renewed moment into the season.

That’s what is now required with the Championship prize once again there to be seized.

A message from the Editor, Mark Waldron

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