The expected goals stats that show Portsmouth should be in the top half of League One

Pompey manager Kenny Jackett and assistant-boss Joe Pepler. Picture: Graham Hunt
Pompey manager Kenny Jackett and assistant-boss Joe Pepler. Picture: Graham Hunt
Share this article
0
Have your say

Pompey have collected five points fewer than they should have done this season.

That’s according to the numbers that have been crunched on the expected goals the Blues should have scored and conceded in League One. 

Kenny Jackett’s men have endured a lacklustre opening to the campaign, picking up just 13 points from 10 matches.

As a result, Pompey sit 16th in the table and it’s caused plenty of apathy among the Fratton faithful. 

With the Blues firmly harbouring automatic promotion ambitions at the start of the campaign, there’s been a lot to be desired.

Not only have results been underwhelming but performances have also been found wanting.

Particularly going forward, Jackett’s men are yet to display their full prowess despite having a wealth of attacking talent at their disposal.

Following Saturday’s goalless stalemate against Gillingham, the boss bemoaned his side's lack of creativity.

Yet stats-website experimental361.com has made the case that Pompey should be five points and five places better off.

Expected goals measures every opportunity and whether a player should have scored from it, based on the quality and quantity of shots.

And the numbers suggest the Blues should have found the back of the net more as well as kept out more efforts on their own goal. 

Put together by data analysis expert Ben Mayhew, it proposes Pompey should have 18 points and be 11th in the table following five wins, three draws and two defeats.

Jackett’s troops have netted 12 times in the third tier so far and most recently drew a blank in draw with the Gills. 

Yet the numbers propose Pompey’s goal tally should be 14.1.

And crucially their goals against column, which is currently 11, should be 9.4.

Given the Blues have lost by a solitary effort in each of their three defeats to Shrewsbury (1-0), Sunderland (2-1) and Wycombe (1-0) the 3.7 goal swing would have made a significant difference.

Of course, there’s only one table that matters and that highlights Pompey languishing in the lower reaches.

And it’s been the Blues own shortfalls why they haven’t matched the numbers they’ve been forecast to hit.

Nevertheless, with 36 games remaining it does bode well in the long run.