Conservative MP Penny Mordaunt could lose Portsmouth North seat at upcoming General Election - YouGov

The latest poll by the market research company projected that Labour would win 403 new seats in a 154 constituency majority. The Tories are projected to win 155 seats.

Statistics were generated from interviewing 18,761 British adults between March 7 and 27. Ms Mordaunt, the current leader of the House of Commons, is among the prominent casualties expected to lose their positions, which includes chancellor Jeremy Hunt for Godalming & Ash, former Conservative leader Ian Duncan Smith, Jacob-Rees Mogg, science secretary Michelle Donelan and Welsh secretary David TC Davies.

The poll also predicts that Reform UK would not win any seats and the Scottish Nationalist Party would only come away with 19 constituencies, with The Green Party and Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru expected to maintain one and four seats respectively. The analysis uses the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling.

Rishi Sunak’s projected downfall would be worse than John Major’s 1997 defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats. Rumours have swirled in national publications that Tory rebels are planning to make a move against Mr Sunak, who have talked up the prospect of Ms Mordaunt replacing him as leader.

The 51-year-old dismissed the claims and said she was frustrated that the story kept recurring. She told BBC Politics South: “This is nonsense, although that’s not the adjective I used in the green room, and I think the public are fed up of this story. I’m leader of the House of Commons. I’m doing my job and encouraging others to get on with theirs.” Further details about the poll can be found on the YouGov website.