The Portsmouth players who are performing better than expected in the League One promotion push

Expected goals (xG) is a metric treated with a fair amount of esteem in the modern game when it comes to breaking down teams and players’ performances.

No longer is it used only by professional clubs when analysing matches.

In layman’s terms, xG measures the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it.

More recently, expected assists (xA) have been used just as frequently.

That measures the likelihood that a given pass will become a goal assist.

The numbers are crunched by various stats-based websites, giving teams and fans alike a platform to see how players in their side are faring. In this case, we have used WyScout.

To put it more simply, if your xG and xG is lower than the recorded tally then players are outperforming their stats. If it’s higher then they’re underachieving.

And when it comes to Pompey, there’s data that shows who’s punching above their weight and who’s not quite meeting the numbers expected of them during the current League One promotion push.

John Marquis is enjoying a far better season than his maiden campaign at Fratton Park and has established himself as first-choice striker.

While the former Doncaster marksman hasn’t bagged in his past six games, the stats show he’s still outperforming what he should be producing in the final third.

Marquis has been directly involved in 12 league goals this term – bagging nine and creating a further three.

However, according to his Wyscout stats, his combined xG and xA is only 9.91.

Marcus Harness has been enjoying a fine campaign and arguably been Jackett’s chief attacking threat.

The forward has five goals and four assists to his name from 19 League One appearances, although the numbers highlight his xG and xA is just 5.44.

Tom Naylor’s new-found penchant for bagging long-range strikes have unsurprisingly meant he’s been any xG fanatic's dream.

The Blues skipper has four goals to his name but should have less than half with his xG at 2.08.

Jack Whatmough’s also displaying his prowess in the final third, scoring and creating three with his xG and xA only 2.33.

Andy Cannon’s recorded two assists so far, although his xA is only 0.93.

Meanwhile, Ellis Harrison (three goals and assists to an xG and xA of 2.88) and Michael Jacobs (two goals and assists to an xG and xA of 1.92) are also outshining their expected numbers.

However, there are some players who’re not quite hitting their combined xG and xG – either due to missed chances or because the opportunities they’ve set up haven’t been converted.

Ronan Curtis has four goals and three assists in the third tier this season, although Wyscout stats place his xG and xG at 7.79.

Some fans have argued Ryan Williams doesn’t contribute enough in the final third, having scored only two and created another.

However, his xG and xA of 3.72 shows he's not too far away from what he should be contributing.

The one surprising player who should have more goals to his name is Sean Raggett.

The wholehearted centre-back has netted a solitary league goal but his xG is 2.69.

Finally, Lee Brown has two assists so far but his xA is 3.07, which suggests he’s been let down by profligate finishing on occasions.

A message from the Editor, Mark Waldron

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