Saturday’s draw at MK Dons means they rely more than ever on their rivals slipping up, with their stalemate at Stadium MK seeing them drop valuable points in the race for the top six.
Five points now separate John Mousinho’s side with fifth and sixth-placed Bolton and Peterborough with just six games of the season remaining.
But what’s the chances of the Blues winning today against Morecambe and Bolton, Posh, Derby and Wycombe suffering blows to their own play-off bids?
Here’s what the statistical analysts at Fivethirtyeight.com think.
1. Goal, Portsmouth midfielder Connor Ogilvie scores, Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 Portsmouth during the EFL Sky Bet League 1 match between Milton Keynes Dons and Portsmouth at stadium mk, Milton Keynes, England on 7th April 2023.
Pompey need to beat Morecambe and hope other results go their way if their play-off hopes are to improve. Photo: Jason Brown
2. Barnsley v Shrewsbury - home win
Barnsley win: 67%. Shrewsbury win: 13%. Draw: 20%. Photo: George Wood
3. Bolton v Cambridge United - home win
Bolton win: 70%. Cambridge United win: 8%. Draw: 22%. Photo: Tom Dulat
4. Charlton v Burton Albion - home win
Charlton win: 59%. Burton Albion win: 19%. Draw: 22%. Photo: James Chance