Will Portsmouth get a white Christmas in 2019? Here are the odds of snow this festive season

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Drawing upon his fond childhood memories of snow-filled festivities, Charles Dickens' classic tales gave birth to the enticing idea of the “white Christmas”.

Christmas songs like Bing Crosby's “white Christmas” and Dean Martin's “Let It Snow” later cemented the idea of snow-covered streets as the ideal seasonal setting.

Don't jinx it, but the odds are looking pretty good for this year's Christmas. Picture: Shutterstock

Don't jinx it, but the odds are looking pretty good for this year's Christmas. Picture: Shutterstock

Years of Christmas movies, TV specials and Coca Cola ad campaigns featuring great heaps of white stuff have also contributed to the idea, to the point where the prospect of a “white Christmas” is now anticipated with excitement by kids and big kids each year.

Read More: Full list of Christmas pantomimes 2019 in Portsmouth, Fareham, Gosport and Southampton

So how likely is it Portsmouth will get a white Christmas this year? Here are the facts behind the fiction, according to the Met Office.

What qualifies as a “white Christmas”?

Ever since Dickens penned his famous tales, we've all been dreaming of a white Christmas. Picture: Shutterstock

Ever since Dickens penned his famous tales, we've all been dreaming of a white Christmas. Picture: Shutterstock

While we might think of a “white Christmas” as a day where every surface is covered in six inches of snow, the official measure is a lot more forgiving.

By the Met Office's standards, if a single snowflake is found to fall during the 24 hour period of Christmas Day, it can be termed a “white Christmas.”

Originally, the Met Office building in London was the only site used to monitor for snow at Christmas. However, as more and more people have taken to placing bets on the subject, the number of locations used has increased to include places like Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Cardiff.

Data from stations around the UK is also analysed to provide a complete report on everywhere snow fell or lay on Christmas Day.

Everything looks a little bit more festive with a little bit of snow. Picture: Shutterstock

Everything looks a little bit more festive with a little bit of snow. Picture: Shutterstock

How often does Portsmouth get a “white Christmas”?

A true Dickensian “white Christmas” of widespread snow has never been a common occurrence in Portsmouth or the rest of the UK.

There has only been widespread snow covering the ground across the UK (as in being reported by more than 40% of stations) four times in the last 51 years.

When was the last white Christmas?

The last real, Hallmark Movie-quality “white Christmas” came back in 2010 when 83% of the UK's stations reported snow lying on the ground during Christmas Day. This was the most ever recorded in the UK.

Oddly, this was actually the second “white Christmas” in a row – 2009 saw 57% of stations reporting snow on the ground.

Scotland holds the honour of having experienced the whitest Christmas in the UK's recorded history when 47cm of snow fell on the Christmas Day of 1981.

Technically, 2015 was also one as 10% of UK stations reported snow falling during Christmas Day but there were no reports at all of it lying.

Will there be a white Christmas this year?

At this point, it is impossible to say, however the Met Office has released its long-range forecast, which predicts that this year the temperature will be milder than usual over Christmas, making snow unlikely.

The long-range forecast for the period between 11 December and 25 December is as follows:

"This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains."

In truth, most of the UK is far more likely to experience snowfall between January and March than to luck out on a white Christmas.

The Met Office will be able to provide an accurate broadcast within a week of Christmas Day, though they do note that 25 December really falls right on the edge of the period in which snow is likely.

According to the Will I get a white Christmas website, Portsmouth currently boasts a 25% chance of snow on the big day, while cities further north like Leeds and Edinburgh have a 50% chance.