Coronavirus: Covid-19 social isolation rules may need to last 'most of a year'

SOCIAL isolation measures will need to be in place for most of a year at least in order to control the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, according to experts' advice to the Government.
Watch more of our videos on Shots! 
and live on Freeview channel 276
Visit Shots! now

Scientists also advised ministers that, while the severity of measures could alternate during the period, the "stricter" measures would need to be enforced for at least half of the year.

The Government published the advice on Friday - a day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he expects the tide to be turned in the fight against Covid-19 within 12 weeks.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

A report by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling states: ‘It was agreed that the addition of both general social distancing and school closures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would be likely to control the epidemic when kept in place for a long period.

A woman wearing a face mask. Picture: DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty ImagesA woman wearing a face mask. Picture: DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images
A woman wearing a face mask. Picture: DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images

‘It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity.

‘These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.’

Read More
Coronavirus: Tesco in Portsmouth, Fareham, Gosport and Havant to open hour early...

The triggers for controls to be imposed or lifted could be set at a level of UK nations and regions, the advice states, suggesting that more stringent measures could be enforced in London, where the disease is at its most rampant.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

The advice dated Monday says the measures that would need to stay for ‘a long period’ would include general social distancing, school closures and household isolation.

Three days later, the PM told the nation: ‘I think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I'm absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country.’

The document also stresses the need for the general public to follow the advice on social distancing, saying critical care facilities will likely be ‘overwhelmed’ unless all measures are taken.

But still the experts said it was ‘unclear’ whether the steps introduced so far would ‘curtail the epidemic’ by stopping its spread.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Separate advice from the Scientific Group on Behaviour and Communications detailed the weight of the pressure on the PM.

They said that public disorder amid epidemics is ‘usually triggered by perceptions about the government response’.

However, they did agree that ‘large-scale rioting is unlikely’ and that there is a greater chance of acts of altruism predominating, which they said ministers could ‘promote and guide’.

One risk to order is from police actions being deemed excessive, with the experts advising that officers should take a role of ‘support rather than control’.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

To minimise the chances, ministers were told to ‘provide clear and transparent reasons for different strategies’ with ‘clear expectations on how the response will develop’.

A sense of collectivism should be fostered with messaging reinforcing a sense of community and that ‘we are all in this together’, they advised.

However, the behavioural advisers warned that the household isolation advice and school closures will have greater impacts on poorer families.

‘For poorer families, loss of income and increased household bills (heating, electricity, food delivery etc), will occur concurrently with loss of social services provided through schools (free school meals, after school clubs etc),’ they said.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

On social distancing, the advice suggested that the risk of infection from attending large events is generally no higher than smaller gatherings.

However, family gatherings are considered to be particularly high-risk as they bring people into closer contact - as do religious services with high physical contact.

‘Smaller gatherings such as bars and nightclubs are higher risk as you can be in closer contact with others,’ the scientists said.

‘Family gatherings are particularly high-risk as they bring people into closer contact. Similarly, religious services with a high level of physical contact would be higher risk.

‘Some activities are higher risk because they are disproportionately depended (on) by older groups.’

Comment Guidelines

National World encourages reader discussion on our stories. User feedback, insights and back-and-forth exchanges add a rich layer of context to reporting. Please review our Community Guidelines before commenting.