Ukraine War: 'Knackered' Russians looking increasingly likely to lose all claimed territory, says ex-intelligence officer

That is the forecast of a former military intelligence officer who visited Ukraine earlier this year, and believes the Russian forces are firmly on the back foot.

Dr Frank Ledwidge, a lecturer at the University of Portsmouth, says the ‘exhausted’ Russian army has no motivation to continue fighting, while the Ukrainians are buoyed by continued advancements as they reclaim territory.

Short of Russian president Vladimir Putin negotiating peace with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky – who will demand that all seized land is returned to Ukraine – Dr Ledwidge says that the Ukrainians will not slow anytime soon.

He said: ‘The main thing we can expect is that Ukraine will continue to advance towards Crimea, and continue operations to reclaim it.

‘People have been talking about the escalation of this conflict and we are certainly on an escalatory path at the moment.

‘The Russians are knackered, for lack of a better word. They have become desperate – they are running out of supplies and running out of soldiers.

‘Although there are many possible outcomes to this war, the most likely at the moment is a Ukrainian victory, followed by a regime change in Russia via a military coup.’

Dr Ledwidge travelled to Ukraine for a few weeks during the summer, as part of a think tank project.

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While he was there, he gained a greater understanding of the Ukrainian determination to win this war.

‘People are angry for having their lives wrecked by the Russians, and understandably so,’ he said.

‘They are determined to win at any cost and that is the leverage they have over the Russians – the will to actually fight.

‘It was a great privilege to be there, but what struck me the most is how positive everyone is. There is a genuine grit and solidarity among the Ukrainian people.’

Regardless of how the war ends, Dr Ledwidge says international aid will be ‘crucial’ in helping Ukraine to recover.

But, he warns, this will be a long-term project, claiming that the damage done to Ukraine is the worst in Europe ‘since 1945’.

Dr Ledwidge added it will ‘dwarf’ the international aid given to the likes of Afghanistan.