General Election 2019: New YouGov poll predicts Labour's Stephen Morgan being re-elected in Portsmouth South

A NEW projection poll is predicting that Stephen Morgan is set to be re-elected as the MP for Portsmouth South in next month’s general election.

Thursday, 28th November 2019, 10:06 am
Updated Thursday, 28th November 2019, 12:34 pm

YouGov released its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model on Wednesday night which has predicted that Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party are on course for a 68-seat majority.

The poll, which surveyed 100,000 people in the UK, features a breakdown of projects for who will win in each constituency across the country including the seats in the Portsmouth area.

According to the MRP, Labour’s Stephen Morgan will be re-elected with 42 per cent of the vote ahead of Tory candidate Donna Jones on 36 per cent while the Liberal Democrats are projected to get 16 per cent of the vote in Portsmouth South. The Brexit Party, for which John Kennedy is standing, is forecast to get six per cent.

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Portsmouth South Tory candidate Donna Jones and the Brexit Party's candidate John Kennedy, with bottom row: Lib Dem candidate Gerald Vernon-Jackson and Labour incumbent Stephen Morgan. Pictures: Habibur Rahman/PA/John Kennedy

A poll conducted by Survation from earlier this month had the Lib Dems ahead in the race for the three-way marginal seat.

YouGov’s model is predicting that Conservatives will hold Portsmouth North, Havant, Fareham, Gosport, Meon Valley, Chichester and Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.

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The MRP shows that the Tories are on course for a majority in the election, predicting that they will win 359 seats – 42 more than they took in 2017 – with 43 per cent of the national vote share.

Meanwhile according to the model, Labour are set to lose 51 seats – falling from 262 seats in 2017 to 211 now – and taking 32 per cent of the vote which would be a nine percentage point decrease.

In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance in terms of seats won since 1983.

For the MRP YouGov polled approximately 100,000 about their voting intentions in the 2019 general election over the last seven days.

The idea behind model is that they use the poll data from the preceding week to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.