Poll predicts loss of Conservative Portsmouth seat at the general election, as part of a ‘1997-style wipeout’

The Telegraph commissioned a YouGov survey of 14,000 people, which forecast the Tories would retain just 169 seats with Labour sweeping to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.

Among the Conservatives predicted to lose their seats were Portsmouth North MP Penny Mordaunt who has held the seat since the boundaries last changed in 2010. The poll predicts Labour would retain the Portsmouth South seat, while the Conservatives held onto the Gosport, East Hampshire, the Hamble Valley and Havant constituencies, as well as win the newly-created Fareham and Waterlooville seat. However it is predicted they would loose the Winchester seat to the Liberal Democrats as well as nearby Chichester.

At least 11 Cabinet ministers would lose seats including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, with his South West Surrey constituency lost to the Liberal Democrats, the poll suggests.

There had been speculation it could be held in May, when some local elections take place, though the latest a Parliament can be dissolved for a general election is on the fifth anniversary of the day it first met making it no later than December 17 2024. However, 25 working days are then allowed to prepare for the election taking the date to January 28 2025.

Writing for The Telegraph, Conservative peer Lord Frost described the poll’s findings as ‘stunningly awful’ for the party, adding it was facing ‘1997-style wipeout – if we are lucky’. He said in the The Telegraph that a combination of tactical voting and any decision by Nigel Farage to return to front-line politics could leave the Conservatives facing ‘an extinction event’.

Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was ‘to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more’.