Portsmouth's attacking threat assessed - the key areas where improvement is needed

Pompey’s form in front of goal is a major concern.
Marcus Harness, left, has three league goals for Pompey this season while John Marquis is yet to get off the mark.  Picture: Daniel Chesterton/phcimages.comMarcus Harness, left, has three league goals for Pompey this season while John Marquis is yet to get off the mark.  Picture: Daniel Chesterton/phcimages.com
Marcus Harness, left, has three league goals for Pompey this season while John Marquis is yet to get off the mark. Picture: Daniel Chesterton/phcimages.com

In six League matches played to date, the Blues have scored just seven goals – with more than half of those coming in the 4-2 win against Burton.

It’s a major reason why Kenny Jackett’s side go into tonight’s game at Gillingham 10th in the table and with a record of P6 W2 D2 L 2.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

It’s also a key reason why Ellis Harrison’s absence for up to three weeks because of a hamstring injury will prove crucial.

With a strike force clearly out of form and lacking in confidence, Pompey have one less option to call upon to help them get over an indifferent start to the season.

So why has it gone wrong so far this league term in an attacking sense?

In order to find out, we’ve taken a look at some of the key stats from the six attacking players who have played the most minutes for the Blues this season.

Breaking it down into sections, here’s what we found…

Shots and shot accuracy

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Ronan Curtis and Marcus Harness lead the way when it comes to shots, with both players recording 14 efforts so far in League One this season.

That’s what you’d expect from two of your top attacking threats at this stage of the campaign, with current top scorer in the division, Ipswich’s Gwion Edwards (five goals), and joint-second top-scorer, Jorge Grant (Lincoln – 4), both recording 15 efforts apiece.

However, it’s when you compare the accuracy of those shots that the Blues duo fall by the wayside.

Harness, who has three goals this season, has a shot accuracy of 42.9 per cent.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Meanwhile, Curtis – yet to get off the mark in League One – currently on 35.7 per cent.

In contrast, 80 per cent of Edwards’ efforts have hit the target, with Grant boasting a 60-per-cent accuracy with his efforts on goal.

That’s clearly well ahead of the Pompey duo who appear to fancy their chances more than any of their team-mates when it comes to scoring.

That shouldn’t be the case, though.

Ellis Harrison has already proven he’s more precise when it comes to shooting, with a 62.5-per-cent accuracy rating.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

His problem lies in the number of shots he’s had, though, with only eight recorded in the division so far – two of which have resulted in goals.

Also worrying in this section is the lack of efforts recorded by Ryan Williams and Michael Jacobs (both four) – two player who have also failed to score so far this season in any competition.

However,what’s more concerning is that fact that neither player is yet to have an effort that is deemed to have worried the opposition keeper.

You can’t score if you don’t shoot. Moreover, you can’t score if your shot is not on target!

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

By the way, from John Marquis’ 10 shots in League One so far – only 10 per cent have been on target.

We’ll let you work that one out.

Expected goals

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables – such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

Ultimately, It is a statistical measurement of the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored.

The higher the number, the better it looks for a player.

Using both Edwards and Grant as an example again, their XG measurement for League One this season stands at 3 and 4.49 respectively.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Compare that to our Blues players’ scores and you can see there’s a big difference.

Harrison (1.7), Marquis (1.46), Harness (1.14), Curtis (0.8), Williams (0.22) and Jacobs (0.05).

Goals per game

A simpler way of determining a player’s current form and threat in front of goal.

With the division’s top scorer, Edwards, on five goals so far this season, he’s currently expected to net 0.8 goals a match.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

That’s slightly better than Grant’s rating in his department (0.7), with fellow second joint-top-scorer, Gillingham’s Jordan Graham, with four goals, coming in with the exact same stat.

And, again, compared to Pompey’s most used attacking players – there’s no comparison really.

Marquis, Curtis, Williams and Jacobs all currently have a goals-per-game ratio of 0 – not surprising as they’ve failed to score in the league so far this term.

Meanwhile, Harness is 0.5 following his three strikes – all against Burton – with Harrison on 0.4 before his injury against Doncaster, which will rule him out for 2-3 weeks.

Dribbles

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Not exactly a key component when it comes to determining a player’s form, but it could give you a good indication of where his confidence is and how much he fancies himself against an opponent.

It’s an area the Blues forwards don’t shy away from, with Harness trying his luck on 40 occasions so far this season, and Curtis weighing in with 26 dribbles.

Their success rates comes in at 57.5 and 42.3 per cent respectively.

But once again if falls short of Edwards and Grant’s converison rates – 58.9 and 66.7 per cent respectively.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

To be fair, Michael Jacobs’ success rate in this department stands at an impressive 64.7 per cent.

That’s from 17 dribbles so far in a Pompey shirt – so maybe if he gets to full fitness soon then it’s an area Pompey can make the most of

Williams, meanwhile, has a 50-per-cent success rate from his 10 dribbles produced so far.

Crossing accuracy

Pompey’s tried-and-test 4-2-3-1 formation means that crosses into the box are key to goals being scored.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

The full-backs are also important in this respect, with pressure on both Callum Johnson and Lee Brown to get forward and to chip in with assists when necessary.

Former Accrington right-back Johnson is prolific in this area, with his 30 crosses in League One so far much better than any of his team-mates.

Meanwhile, Brown’s accuracy rating of 60.9 per cent (from 23 crosses) also sets him apart from his fellow Pompey players.

Here's how that compares to Curtis, Williams, Jacobs and Harness – forward players who have featured on the wings for the Blues this season:Curtis: 22 crosses, 27.3 per cent accuracy ratings; Williams: six crosses, 33.3 per cent success rate; Harness: 24 crosses, 25 per cent accuracy rating; Jacobs nine crosses, 22.2 per cent success rate.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Once again, it’s an area the Blues forwards can improve upon if they are to be an effective unit moving forward.

Individual duels

Related to the quality of crosses is, of course, a player’s ability to convert them in the box.

If the crossing accuracy is not spot on, though, then what chance does a forward have of scoring?

Well, this is an area which the Blues’ centre-forward do quite well in.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Marquis has won 33 per cent of his individual duels and 37 per cent of his aerial duels.

Meanwhile, Harrison’s stats for the above come in at 43.7 and 50 per cent respectively.

Joe Pigott’s three league goals makes him the division’s most in-from striker, with both Edwards and Graham wingers, and Grant an attacking midfielder.

But compared to Harrison, in particular, he’s playing second best.

He has a 36.4 per cent winning rate on duels and a 41.7 per cent success rate with aerial duels.

In that respect, the sooner Harrison returns from injury the better.

Comment Guidelines

National World encourages reader discussion on our stories. User feedback, insights and back-and-forth exchanges add a rich layer of context to reporting. Please review our Community Guidelines before commenting.