What Portsmouth's league meeting with Oxford tells us about the Blues' play-off opponents

The spoils were shared when Pompey and Oxford met in League One this season.
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For the second time within a month, the Blues and Karl Robinson’s men played out a draw.

Following a 2-2 draw in the Leasing.com Trophy in October, the promotion hopefuls then shared a 1-1 stalemate at Fratton Park on November 2.

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In truth, we can discount the cup match between the two sides, with Kenny Jackett fielding a weakened starting line-up for the game.

Youngsters Josh Flint, Leon Maloney, Brad Lethbridge, Joe Hancott and Harvey Rew all featured from the outset.

However, there are various facets from the third-tier meeting that we can analyse and how they could impact Pompey’s preparations heading into the showdown...

How did both sides set up?

Oxford began the game in a 4-2-2 diamond formation, with Jamie Mackie playing just behind striker Matty Taylor.

Ronan Curtis in action against Oxford in November. Picture: Joe PeplerRonan Curtis in action against Oxford in November. Picture: Joe Pepler
Ronan Curtis in action against Oxford in November. Picture: Joe Pepler
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However, Pompey’s early dominance in the game forced Robinson to switch to a 4-5-1 system in the first half to try to get on the front foot.

Tariqe Fosu switched from the tip of the midfielder to wide left and Mackie switching to the right flank.

Unsurprisingly, the hosts didn’t change from their favoured 4-2-3-1 shape, with only John Marquis being dropped into the No10 position when Ellis Harrison replaced goalscorer Gareth Evans.

Who had more possession?

It was the visitors that dominated possession for the majority of the 90 minutes, having 57 per cent in total.

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It was on the counter-attack, though, when Pompey looked the most dangerous, breaking at pace whenever possible.

When the Blues opened the scoring, for example, Wyscout stats show the U’s were having their best spell with the ball.

What’s more, when Oxford snatched their equaliser, it was in fact the possession of Jackett’s men which was on the increase.

Who had the better chances?

Blues fans walked away from Fratton Park unable to fathom how they hadn’t collected three points - and expected goal (xG) stats also underline that.

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It’s a metric which assesses every chance throughout a game, with the likelihood of whether it should have been taken or not between zero and one.

Jackett’s side had 16 chances on goal in total, recording an xG of 2.17. Ryan Williams (0.56) and John Marquis (0.23) both had good opportunities but failed to take them.

In contrast, Oxford had nine chances, with their xG just 0.82. Their best opportunity of the game by far was Taylor’s late equaliser, which had an xG of 0.26.

Overall, it means Pompey should have won comfortably but lacked composure in the final third.

How did Oxford combine when going forward?

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James Henry is a player that Kenny Jackett knows all about having worked together at Millwall.

And the creative midfielder, once linked with the Blues, will again look to be at the heart of Oxford’s attacks like he was earlier in the campaign.

Of Robinson’s side’s top-10 link-ups at Fratton Park, Henry featured in six of them. He combined with Matty Taylor (13), Sam Long (12), Tariqe Fosu (8), John Mousinho (7) and Rob Dickie (7) in an influential display.

It’s likely that Pompey will look to nullify his threat as the conduit between Oxford’s engine room and front men. Tom Naylor’s role sitting in front of the defence could be crucial.

Who’ll be looking to stifle Pompey’s attacks?

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Alex Gorrin was linked with a move to the south coast last summer after leaving Motherwell.

The Spaniard completed a switch to the Kassam Stadium, however, and has been a key man in their promotion push.

In the league meeting, Gorrin won 25 defensive duels at a success rate of 64 per cent. He'll again be persistently snapping at the heels of blue shirts.

In the U’s defensive, Rob Dickie has been imperious all season and been linked with a move to the Championship in recent months.

He won 23 of his battles, while centre-back partner John Mousinho came out on the right side of 67 per cent of his duels.