General Election 2024: Penny Mordaunt "almost certainly" going to lose Portsmouth North seat, supporter says

Cllr Madgwick, who had backed Penny Mordaunt after declining to stand as a Reform UK candidate, is “almost certain” the House of Commons leader will lose her seat – as predicted by exit polls. While observing the vote counting at The Guildhall, Madgwick noted his surprise at Reform UK’s performance.

He said: “Although we thought they were going to do really well in the north, we didn’t expect they would do this well. It looks like they’re going to be getting about 25 per cent of the vote.” He said Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, had won a significant number of boxes in various wards, mainly at the expense of the Conservative vote.

“In certain wards, they’ve taken quite a lot of boxes and it looks like they’ve taken votes away mainly from the Conservatives,” he added. Cllr Madgwick predicted a narrow Labour victory: “We’re seeing an almost certain Labour win but only by a couple of per cent, less than 2,000 votes.”

He highlighted key areas where Reform UK’s impact was most felt. Speaking to the Local Democracy Reporting Service, he said: “Paulsgrove is a big Labour area and it’s gone to Reform. In key areas such as Drayton and Farlington, the northern parts of Hilsea, and the northern parts of Cosham where you’d expect a Tory home run, Reform has really affected that vote by taking probably 15 to 20 per cent off the Tory vote.”

“I’ve been involved in local politics for eight years. I’ve never seen a box in Drayton where it’s been 50 per cent between Labour and Tories.” Despite his prediction, Cllr Madgwick is “more than willing to accept that Penny Mordaunt is a very good MP, and losing her will be a disaster for Portsmouth.”